Political Scientist: There Are Two Versions Of Why Lukashenka Transferred Troops

The dictator may leave Ukraine no choice.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, citing intelligence data, reported the transfer of Belarusian troops to the Ukrainian border. Among this military contingent are also the “Wagnerites”. Ukraine warned that it reserves the right to defend itself. What is going on? Why is Lukashenka escalating the situation? Charter97.org spoke with Slovak political scientist and President of the Institute of Public Affairs (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov about this:

— It is difficult to say exactly what Lukashenka has in mind, but two possible options seem most obvious. The first version is that Lukashenka wants to complicate the operation of the Ukrainian armed forces on Russian territory, to distract the Ukrainian Armed Forces from solving certain tasks that they are solving both on the territory of Ukraine and in the part of the Russian Federation that they currently control.

The second version is that Lukashenka simply wants to curry favor with Putin, who is constantly pressuring him to take a more active part in the aggression against Ukraine. Perhaps Lukashenka is simply trying to curry favor, to show that he sent his troops to the border, but at the same time not to take direct part in the hostilities.

— The Russian Foreign Ministry rushed to defend Lukashenka, stating that he is “fulfilling allied obligations.” Why such a nervous reaction?

— Firstly, this is general political support, Putin and Lukashenka are indeed allies. There are rumors that they have quite a tense personal relationship, but they are bound by one chain.

And the second point is that this could be a kind of threat to Ukraine. This may be due to the fact that Putin wants to make it clear to Ukraine that no matter what happens on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should not take any action against the Lukashenka regime.

— Ukraine has changed the rules of the game in many ways by entering the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. Could there be more decisive actions against Lukashenka from the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

— If something happens that Ukraine can really fear, if the Belarusian armed forces begin to carry out some actions, violate territorial integrity, cross the border, etc., then in this situation all possible considerations about some kind of non-escalation will be removed. The Ukrainians will have no other option but to defend their territory and strike at Lukashenka's troops.

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