‘This Mechanism Would Force Putin To End War In 24 Hours’
16- 15.01.2025, 11:09
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A political scientist spoke about sanctions that have proven themselves in the times of Napoleon.
The outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden introduced unprecedentedly tough sanctions against Russian oil and gas companies last week. The shadow fleet of the Russian Federation was also hit.
Is this a strong blow to the Russian budget? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with political scientist Dzmitry Balkunets:
— In fact, Russia has learned to bypass sanctions using a “shadow fleet”. Specific tankers are included in the US list. In theory, Russia can find a replacement for them.
Nevertheless, this is one of the strongest measures in recent times from the Biden administration and I think that Trump will continue this campaign. After all, it is important for the US to promote its companies that produce oil and supply it to European and other markets.
This blow may be somewhat painful for Putin, but not enough. I believe that the best mechanism that could force Putin, so to speak, to end the war in 24 hours is to impose a full temporary naval blockade on all ships leaving Russian ports, as well as a continental blockade on all merchant ships leaving Russian ports.
This measure could lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. There were such precedents in world practice in the 19th and 20th centuries. At that time, naval blockades were actively used by countries. One of the most famous was the naval blockade of Great Britain, which was carried out by Napoleonic France.
It led to catastrophic consequences for Great Britain. Not a single ship could leave the island. If the EU and the US now decided to impose a naval blockade on all cargo leaving Russian ports, this would cause Russia massive damage. It would force Putin not only to end the war and start negotiations, but also to pay compensation. I think that this would have a serious effect on a number of sectors of the Russian economy.
By the way, this is an absolutely peaceful measure, which, I emphasize, could stop the war very, very quickly. This is not a weapon, but trade, which today is of primary importance in terms of replenishing the Kremlin treasury.
— China has temporarily stopped accepting Russian tankers with oil, a similar story with India. Will Russian energy resources become toxic for these countries? Or will they look for workarounds?
— Russia is not a major priority for India and China. I think they will look for an opportunity to cover the lost energy resources. They will not even notice that there are any problems with the supply of Russian oil products to these markets.
I suspect that in the future, Russia will replace the tankers that fell under sanctions, continuing trade. I emphasize that a naval blockade can stop trade. This issue requires a large-scale discussion at the global level. Only tough measures will force Putin not just to stop the war, but to withdraw all troops from Ukraine.
But, unfortunately, European politicians are not talking about this. Over three years of war, prime ministers have changed in a number of European countries 2-4 times. Populists come to power, who are sometimes completely stupid, random, and uncharismatic. You could say they are traders. For them, earning 2 euros today is a top priority. They do not look at the historical perspective.
Only the White House administration, if Trump is ready to make radical decisions, will be able to do such things. Europe is not ready for this due to the lack of politicians with strong-willed character traits.
— Let's look at these sanctions through the eyes of the new White House administration. Will Trump continue the trend of ousting Russia from the oil market? Is it beneficial for him?
— On the one hand, I think Trump will continue this. On the other hand, there is a risk that he will seek to shift security to Europe.
America has loaded itself with arms contracts for the coming years, Trump will continue this trend. It is important for him to secure the US place in the European market for the supply of gas, oil and other goods that the US is currently producing.
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