Roman Svitan: Lukashenka Has A Debt To Pay
9- 7.01.2025, 22:08
- 37,738
The dictator will soon be 'gone'.
In an interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had a conversation with Lukashenko in the first days of the war.
The Belarusian dictator suggested that the Ukrainian president strike the Mazyr Oil Refinery. What is behind this statement? Charter97.org asked military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan for a comment:
— Most likely, Ukrainian politicians then, in 2022, expressed a certain complaint to Lukashenka for letting Russian troops through his territory. He said in slang, like, "hurt me too by striking the Mazyr Oil Refinery." That's how it could have looked like. As they say, it was said in the heat of the moment.
A strike on the Mazyr Oil Refinery is possible only in the event of direct participation of Belarusian troops in military operations, as well as in the event of a decision to provide serious assistance to Russian troops. Then all Belarusian energy facilities, 'hydrocarbons' that are involved in the production of military products (and fuel is the lifeblood of the army), will be destroyed. Just as Russian military facilities in the hydrocarbon industry are being destroyed now.
If a decision were made to strike the oil refinery, it would disable the production of diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene, leaving the Belarusian army (and part of the Russian army) without fuel.
By the way, now the external influence on the sovereignty of Belarus is enormous. Both Russian and Chinese. It is a matter of time before Lukashenka leaves. But he will remain in debt for the thousands of Ukrainian lives that Russian troops took, passing through Belarus with Lukashenka's permission. This blood will only be washed off him with blood. In this sense, his life will be, to put it mildly, not so hot.
— Why did Zelensky tell about this conversation, almost three years after the war?
— This is such a geopolitical move, connected, perhaps, with Zelensky's relations with Lukashenka at the moment — both with the "elections" and with some aspects of Donald Trump's new team's participation in geopolitics. After all, this interview was mainly aimed at Trumpists.
The negative highlighting of Lukashenka's actions fits into the general paradigm of the new American administration's vision of the occupation regime of Belarus. Therefore, I see a positive moment here.
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