Russians Advised To Prepare For Dollar To Rise Above 130 Rubles

New sanctions could cause the Russian national currency to collapse.

New US sanctions against Russian oil, introduced “as a farewell” by the Joe Biden administration, will cost the Russian economy tens of billions of dollars in lost export revenue and will lead to the dollar rising above 130 rubles. This forecast is given by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting (CMASF), an organization close to the government, headed by the brother of Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, writes The Moscow Times.

According to the calculations of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), due to the tightening of sanctions, which affected Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as over 180 tankers of the “shadow” fleet, the inflow of foreign currency into Russia in the next three years will decrease by $156 billion.

The economy, according to the center's experts, will lose $47 billion in 2025, $57 billion in 2026 and $52 billion in 2027 due to a decrease in the volume of oil and oil product exports, as well as additional discounts that Russian oil companies will be forced to give. This, in turn, will lead to an additional devaluation of the ruble: the average dollar exchange rate will rise to 108.3 rubles this year, 124.9 rubles in 2026 and 132.2 rubles in 2027.

Without sanctions, according to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), the dollar would cost 99.2 rubles this year, 105.7 rubles next year, and 109.4 rubles the year after. Thus, the new measures against Russian oil will lower the Russian currency by 23 rubles in three years.

“Due to the accelerated depreciation of the ruble, the inflation rate will increase,” the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) writes: the rate of price growth will exceed the scenario without sanctions by 1% this year, by 0.6% in 2026, and by 0.2% in 2027. This will force the Central Bank to return to raising the key rate to 23% per annum, a new maximum since 2002.

Due to the acceleration of inflation, Russian citizens will lose 0.9% of their income in real terms, will be forced to reduce consumption by 1.3%, and retail purchases by 1.5%. Overall, the economy will lose 0.7% of GDP, or 1.4 trillion rubles in terms of the 2024 GDP, according to the CMASF estimates.

The risks of a deterioration in the foreign economic environment for the Russian economy have “significantly increased,” the center’s experts emphasize in the report: in addition to the sanctions themselves, the United States is increasing its influence on intermediaries so that they comply with restrictive measures. In addition, US President Donald Trump “announced a significant increase in oil production in the United States, which could negatively affect oil prices on world markets,” the CMASF writes.

According to Alfa Bank estimates, due to the new sanctions, Russia could lose up to 800 thousand barrels of daily oil exports, or about a third of all volumes exported by tankers from sea ports. For the budget, this will mean a loss of 1% of GDP in revenues, Janis Kluge, a research fellow at the German Institute for International Security Studies, previously estimated. In monetary terms, the treasury may lose about 2 trillion rubles, or 18% of the oil and gas revenues that the Finance Ministry planned for the current year (10.9 trillion rubles). Biden's farewell sanctions also included two key oil refineries for Russia (Omsk and Moscow), the operator of Rosneft's flagship project Vostok Oil (Vankor Oil), the structures of the Baltic LNG project, two Gazprom LNG plants in the Baltic, 30 oilfield service companies, and 6 top managers of the Russian oil and gas industry. The number of “shadow fleet” vessels under Western restrictions exceeded 270. According to S&P Global, the “blacklists” included tankers that carried half of Russia's seaborne oil exports, or 1.5 million barrels per day — about 1 million to China and about 500 thousand to India.

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