Collapse Of Lukashenka's Plans

The Baltic countries broke the electric ring network.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania disconnected their electrical systems from the BRELL power ring and joined the system of continental Europe. In this regard, the former "paper" plans of Belarus to export electricity to the Baltic countries were finally burned not only for political reasons, but now for technical reasons. Meanwhile, Minsk continues to develop a feasibility study for the construction of the second Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant or, at least, the third power unit at the station in Astravets. Who needs it and what for?

The electric ring of Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (BRELL) is a synchronous mode of operation of the power systems of these countries at a single current frequency of 50 Hz, established in accordance with the agreement of February 7, 2001. At the same time, all three Baltic countries remain an energy deficit region. The Belarusian leadership in the design and construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant initially planned to eliminate this deficit with the benefit of selling excess electricity abroad. For the same reason, the relatively short terms of repayment of the Russian loan for the construction of this expensive toy were called. But the project was initially, and very harshly and unambiguously, not accepted by the neighbors of Belarus.

Minsk predictably reacted with great irritation to the withdrawal of the three countries from the common energy system. The Belarusian state media predict an almost energy catastrophe for the Baltic countries after the withdrawal from BRELL: after the withdrawal, "Lithuania really now has every chance to return to the conditions of the end of the 19th century and live in full harmony with nature in case of the slightest accident." These gloomy forecasts are heard against the background of the fact that the Belarusian NPP has not generated electricity for more than a month and a half. The first unit is under scheduled repair, and the second is disconnected from the network due to a breakdown. Just before the presidential election, a power unit was urgently activated.

In the context of all these incidents and events, Minsk is increasingly pushing the idea of building a second nuclear power plant or the third power unit in Belarus.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka returns to this topic regularly. In January 2022, he stated that he was “preparing the consciousness” of Belarusians for the possibility of building a second nuclear power plant. In August 2023, he intensified his thought: “I have such a crazy idea — and build a second nuclear power plant in the east.” In January this year, Lukashenka again shared his "crazy idea" and promised that he would discuss this issue with Vladimir Putin, probably believing that in the context of the beginning of the formation of a single electricity market (the relevant agreement was signed on December 6, 2024), such a conversation would be quite appropriate.

"The nuclear era for our country is unlikely to stop only at the Belarusian nuclear power plant," a prominent representative of the Ministry of Energy said recently and stated that the work on the feasibility study of construction is close to completion. A report to the government and the head of state on the construction of the second nuclear power plant or another unit at the site of the Belarusian nuclear power plant should be submitted this year. The same "Leninist enthusiasm" with which the gasification of the country was carried out, the government is ready to show at a new stage of electrification.

The initiative of the new nuclear power plant is not yet sufficiently "combed", but Lukashenka already knows where to get money for construction. He proposed to use the balances of the loan that Moscow gave to the BelNPP: USD 5.36 billion of the estimated USD 10 billion was spent on the Russian loan. According to Lukashenka, two more power units can be built for the remaining funds. In fact, the total cost of the BelNPP is estimated at almost USD 7 billion — excluding the cost of building roads and railways to the station.

The "nuclear era", which began in Belarus with the launch of the BelNPP, did not become an era of cheap electricity (as previously assumed and promised). Such a conclusion can be made by any layman, watching the growth of electricity tariffs. In this regard (in particular), experts are skeptical about the prospects for a new megaproject, some consider it another economic adventure.

According to experts, from an economic point of view, the first nuclear power plant will be unprofitable for the first 15 years — until the loan is repaid. With the second NPP, the situation will be even more complicated. Ultimately, it will benefit mainly contractors — those who will build it or be responsible for the purchase of equipment. It is also quite obvious — and Belarusian officials do not forget to remind about this — that investments in construction will have a positive impact on economic growth. In the future, a certain number of workplaces will also be created (station maintenance). At this point, the benefits and bonuses end.

In the case of electricity supplies only to the domestic market, it will be impossible in principle to operate a new nuclear power plant — even taking into account plans for increasing energy consumption in the next 5-10 years. Electricity, unlike, for example, firewood, oil or liquefied gas, cannot be stored and stored on an industrial scale: everything that is generated must be used. In addition, experts say, the Belarusian power system will receive two additional power units, "which are practically not controlled, and it will be very difficult and expensive to achieve balance in the power system." This can lead to major fan outages and severe accidents.

Rosatom is ready to build as many stations in Belarus as necessary. In the Russian government, on the contrary, Lukashenka is not enthusiastic about the "crazy idea". The Russian side, represented by Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Pavel Snikkars, is "restrained and cautious" about the initiative to build a second nuclear power plant in Belarus: "We must understand who will consume this energy. The task is just to build something so that it stands, no way." There is no economic feasibility in buying Belarusian electricity.

In the Russian State Duma, the idea of the emergence of a new player in the national electricity market is perceived quite normally, because until 2027 a full-fledged unified electricity market will be created within the framework of the "union state".

Aliaksandr Lukashenka, in turn, probably expects Putin to make a political decision to buy electricity from Belarus at a loss to the Russian energy system. Why not? Aren't we building a single energy market? In words, the Belarusian leader is ready to transfer everyone to electric vehicles in the future, thus eliminating all potential imbalances of the energy system, but in reality he is not able to get out of the "rut" of export orientation.

Stanislau Halavaty, Our Opinion

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