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Defeating Russia Without U.S. Help: How Ukraine Will Fight Under Trump

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Defeating Russia Without U.S. Help: How Ukraine Will Fight Under Trump

The effect of Washington's demarches will be noticeable, but not critical.

What can Ukraine achieve without U.S. support?

In short:

Provided that the EU allocates enough money, the effect of Washington's demarches will be noticeable, but not critical.

For the most part, European armed decisions are closer to the requirements of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

If we take the basis of our war — drones, then we mainly make them ourselves. Components from the USA are used fragmentarily and mainly have analogues in other countries.

Even if we consider the premium segment of expensive reconnaissance drones, here European manufacturers dominate over American ones in supplies and are very flexible in adapting to the current war.

Of course, the American Silvus communication equipment is considered the best in the world in its segments, but it is used as an expensive solution, rather limited. But there are competitors.

The most important thing the US has for drones is Starlink. But the United States does not hear about the planned hostile actions against Ukraine, so we are not talking about the forced disconnection of Starlink to the Ukrainians (yet!). Although this possibility should be taken into account now and intensively work on finding alternatives should be carried out.

The United States, based on the current mood in the Capitol, wants to partially turn into China in this war: sell defense solutions for money, get the maximum short-term material benefit. The main thing is that the United States does not start playing on the side of Moscow, as it often happened.

Thus, if the United States does not switch from the policy of exclusion from the conflict to open pressure on Ukraine in the interests of the Russian Federation, then the domestic drone industry will be able to work further, and the forces of unmanned systems will be able to get what they need.

As for the "classic" weapons, in my opinion, Europe is ahead of the United States in the level of armored vehicles and barrel artillery. The Bradley is a great vehicle, but the Swedish CV-90 is just as good, and in many ways better. The same will be true if you compare the Abrams and the Leopard.

The United States does not have such APCs as the Europeans do. There are no such self-propelled mortar systems with automatic guidance. Most of NATO's 155mm self-propelled guns are not American either.

Some may say that now it does not matter as much as before — traditional weapons are receding into the background. From a particular area, statistics comes that most of the defeats are carried out by drones.

But the development of the war does not stop, and it is possible that in the coming years, antidrone weapons will be able to massively return good old tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers to the battlefield.

And, in fact, the leaders in the production of such equipment are European and Israeli companies, whose products have already become the gold standard at the front.

The question remains whether Ukraine will be able to receive (for money) the wonderful Himars missile systems or their analogues from the EU in the future. And also, will the Europeans be able to continue to transfer us American weapons like Patriot systems and the like.

The loss of the United States as a source of weapons for us will be tangible, but not critical pain. We can fight without the US and even win, provided that Europe behaves lively.

Ihor Lutsenko, Facebook

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