The Treasury Is Empty, My Lord!
8- Ales Hudziya
- 20.02.2025, 18:00
- 11,028
The authorities have once again remembered about the businessmen’s pockets.
What prompted Aliaksandr Lukashenka to hold a meeting with representatives of private enterprises on February 17? The answer suggests itself.
The Belarusian financial system has found itself in a vice: on the one hand, there is the pressure of sanctions, on the other, the instability of the Russian market, which is again experiencing a crisis of uncertainty. So it is necessary to urgently find new sources of income, otherwise the stability of the regime will be in question.
Russia has plenty of its own problems
Today, the issue of sources of financing in Belarus is not only about development. It is becoming problematic to maintain even the current level of prosperity. This is because the Russian support that Minsk has become accustomed to counting on is becoming less and less predictable. The easternmost neighbor is experiencing growing economic difficulties.
The well-known book by Grigory Oster, “Harmful Advice,” offers a simple financing algorithm: if you haven’t found a penny in your pocket, look in your neighbor’s pocket, the money is obviously there.
Today, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Belarusian authorities to “look” into the Russian pocket. At the same time, Western financial markets are tightly closed, and China, distant not only geographically but also economically, is in no hurry to offer credit lines. Therefore, the attention of officials has naturally shifted inward.
Don't hide your money...
The Belarusian economy, like any other, is divided into public and private sectors. And since state-owned enterprises, despite support, often operate at a loss, it is logical that officials are looking more closely at private business.
But after the events of 2020 and 2022, their main target initially became foreign investors who invested money in Belarus. For them, exiting the market turned out to be almost impossible: some were unexpectedly charged fines equal to the amount of capital withdrawal, others — additional taxes, leaving them without profit.
The tragicomic nature of the situation is that while some officials were making it more difficult for foreign companies to leave, others, literally from the next office, continued to advertise Belarus as a country with an attractive investment climate.
However, there are not many potential victims among foreign investors. Meanwhile, the authorities are in dire need of stable income, since money is needed for a longer period. Therefore, their eyes have now turned to Belarusian private business.
In addition, local bosses are cautiously looking at the Russian capital, which has been actively entering Belarus in recent years. It is significant that on February 17, Tatyana Kim, the founder of the Wildberries marketplace and the richest woman in Russia, was at a meeting with Lukashenka.
It is better not to slaughter this cow, but to milk it
The very fact of such an event speaks volumes. The ruler, who was once going to “shake hands with the last entrepreneur,” is now forced to acknowledge the importance of private business. The realization that without him the national economy simply will not survive is apparently exacerbated during a period of acute shortage of funds.
As analyst Siarhei Chaly joked, the authorities seem to have decided to “pause the final solution to the entrepreneurial issue.” After all, if they do not support their private business, they will have to stimulate foreign business, which means less favorable conditions for the state and stronger negotiating positions for foreign partners, especially Russian ones.
However, it would not be in Lukashenka's nature to curry favor with entrepreneurs. Several key statements speak to the tone of his meeting with businesses.
“We have no non-state enterprises here. In our country, there are private and state-owned enterprises. There are no non-state people here.”
“Some of our companies, especially foreign ones, work here, people are working hard (not only managers), so to speak, they earn money, and the managers take it abroad. <…> But if you hide abroad the money earned here, what should my attitude towards you be?”
At the same time, according to Lukashenka, the state also provides support to small and medium-sized businesses. Formally, yes, but in practice, the “financial shoulder” often resembles a footrest for private initiative — bureaucratic barriers and “strictest” control.
In the Belarusian economic model, the right to private property is interpreted in a very peculiar way: the state considers itself a full-fledged manager of not only state assets, but also private capital.
Officials want to control not only business income, but also its distribution, openly prohibiting the withdrawal of capital and directing private funds to those priority sectors that officials themselves will determine.
At the same time, the authorities themselves acknowledge the high contribution of entrepreneurship to the economy:
Half of GDP comes from the private sector;
37% of industrial production is provided by private companies;
A third of investments in the country are made by private individuals.
It would seem that such figures should make private business a significant negotiator. But in Belarusian realities, it still turns out to be a one-sided game.
Businessmen will be divided into “right” and “wrong”
Another debut idea of Lukashenka is to compile a list of honest entrepreneurs. The idea to divide business as a kind of product: first, second grade and, probably, “defective” — this, however, looks like a natural continuation of the policy of recent years. After 2020, many companies that do not meet the loyalty criterion, the Procrustean bed of Belarusian statehood, faced administrative and forceful pressure. Now they probably want to legitimize this process.
At best, this initiative will remain on paper. At worst, it will become an instrument of corruption, giving officials leverage to regulate the market and create privileged conditions for the “right” companies.
Help? Better not
The icing on the cake of the meeting was Lukashenka’s offer to personally help businessmen in establishing foreign contacts: “Do you have an interest in Oman, the Emirates, the Saudis, somewhere in Africa... You tell me what you can latch on to there. I am ready, if circumstances allow, to fly and talk about this topic. I am ready to help you.”
Yes, but will it be of much use? Lukashenka’s recent foreign visits, positioned as promoting the economic interests of Belarus, actually turned out to be just expensive political tourism at the expense of the budget.
There was no breakthrough in the export of Belarusian goods in Africa, Latin America, or even Asia, where Belarus could theoretically more easily promote its products through Russia, minimizing the pressure of Western sanctions.
All these attempts to find additional financial resources, including through domestic businesses, confirm one of the versions of why the last presidential “elections” in Belarus were scheduled much earlier than usual.
The economic situation raises serious concerns, and the authorities sought to complete the electoral process while there were still certain resources in the budget, including Russian ones. Otherwise, holding such a meeting before the elections, the authorities would have been forced to promise more, rather than make entrepreneurs a Sicilian offer that is impossible to refuse.
Ales Hudziya, Pozirk
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