Mārtiņš Staķis: We Are Waiting For Fourth Baltic Country To Join The EU

A long interview with the most popular Latvian politician in Belarus.

In 2021, Riga Mayor Mārtiņš Staķis became a hero and a favorite of many Belarusians in one day. During the Ice Hockey World Championship, he replaced the red-green flag with a white-red-white one with the “Pahonia” coat-of-arms.

Today, Mārtiņš is a Latvian MEP and one of the main lobbyists for a free Belarus in Brussels.

Charter97.org spoke with Martins Stakis about the new role of Europe, the threats of the Lukashenka regime to EU security, and the European path for a free Belarus.

— The latest statements by representatives of the new American administration have forced Europeans to think about what the new role of the European Union in the world will be. How do you see the new Europe?

— Europe will choose its own role. If it wants to be active on the world stage, it is not what Vance or Trump say that matters, but what Europe does. And if Europe understands that defense and security are our responsibility, not others, then I think the role of our union will only improve. This is probably the main reason why I am here in the European Parliament.

I have been talking about this for the last five years. We cannot always rely on someone else to solve our problems, especially when we talk about our army, our capabilities, what we can do to protect ourselves and others.

— What is the mood among your colleagues in the European Parliament? Is Brussels determined?

— You know, there is no such country as the “European Union”. It is 27 different countries with different opinions. For example, all of Scandinavia, all of the Baltics, Poland, I would say Germany, the Netherlands, France, are now reacting very adequately. They understand that now is the time to become a guarantor of our security and the security of our allies, including Ukraine.

As for the countries that are, let's say, closer to the south, I would not be so optimistic — Italy, Spain, Portugal, other countries. They feel the Russian threat less than we do.

I will tell you using the example of MEPs. Of the 720 politicians I meet, 650 or 600 understand the situation very well. They are 100% sure that we need to increase investments in our defense.

The main problem of European politicians is that they do not know how to sell the idea of security to their citizens.

The citizens of Latvia, my country, want us to invest not 3.5, but 5% of GDP in our security. Finland has long understood this, Poland has almost done it, but Germany, France, the Netherlands have not yet achieved it. I think that in these countries it is quite easy to convince their residents that we need to do this.

However, this means that less money will be allocated for the same social assistance, other priorities. But will politicians in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Luxembourg and other countries be able to convince their citizens? I am quite skeptical, frankly.

I think that now is the moment of truth, everyone is ready to talk about it. When I started working in the European Parliament, six months ago, the situation was quite cautious. Now we can talk about security freely, because everyone understands that we will have to solve this issue.

— In the context of security, I would like to touch on Belarus. At the Munich Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made two statements about my country. First: Zelensky said that Russia could use Belarus as a military base for attacking the Baltic countries, Poland. Is there such a threat?

— I will tell you frankly, we already consider Belarus a base for Putin's aggression. I do not think that anything would stop Putin if he wanted to do this today. However, NATO experts are confident about two such ideas. In the Kremlin, the most important thing is not the facts, but what Putin believes or does not believe. Putin currently believes that he is winning the war in Ukraine. He believes it, and I think that Trump has helped him to believe in this victory almost 100%.

But at the same time, Putin still believes that he should not attack any NATO countries. The question now is: how long will he believe this? There are people in his circle who think that he should attack. So the moment of truth has come for Europe. What should we do so that Putin continues to believe that he should not attack Europe.

I would not say yet that the US may leave NATO. I think such a scenario is impossible. But the fact that Washington may reduce its presence here in Europe is a fairly realistic scenario.

If we look at Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, we have a very small presence of US troops. In Poland, of course, this is a much bigger problem. Because there are, if I am not mistaken, more than 10 thousand American soldiers there.

In Poland, many hope that Trump will say something like this: “Warsaw is trying to move towards 5% investment in its security. In those countries that are moving towards this goal, we will remain and will continue to be a guarantor of security.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda just returned from Washington. He said that American guarantees remain. But then, when you listen to what the quote was, he said that “he has a feeling that this will be the case.” I think we need to sort this out as soon as possible. A lot depends on the Americans.

You know, I volunteer in the army myself. I know what the plans are. We are constantly working on various scenarios of what could happen. The most likely scenario is an attack on some NATO countries, including Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland — through Belarus.

— Okay, then here is Zelensky's second statement at the Munich Conference. More visionary. “The eastern borders of Ukraine and Belarus should become the borders of European security.” Is there a strategic understanding of the importance of Belarus in the European Union?

— Let's say I don't think so. If it is quite clear about Ukraine, then I have not seen such plans about Belarus. Of course, we understand that it is in our interests for the regime in Belarus to change, for there to be a government with which we can work. And in such a scenario, I think there are such plans.

Zelensky also said that if the war ended with Ukraine's victory, if they returned to the 2014 borders, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be the guarantor of security for all of Europe. Ukraine would deploy its army in the Baltic countries. This is, of course, a different scenario. But the likelihood of this scenario is still unclear.

As for Ukraine, I think everyone understands that a scenario in which European troops appear on its territory is real.

But not all countries in Europe will agree to such a development of events. It is good that Great Britain has now taken, so to speak, the leading role in this issue. Because Great Britain does not need to negotiate with anyone. They can make a decision themselves. In the European Union, Orbán alone can simply declare his veto. If Great Britain is now taking the initiative, then there are no obstacles for, for example, other European countries to join this program and take care of security in Ukraine, Europe and the world.

— Returning to the threats from the territory of Belarus. Putin is certainly not thinking about a direct attack on NATO countries. There could be a hybrid attack, when, for example, some unidentified sabotage and reconnaissance groups from Belarus break through to Daugavpils, NATO countries gather for long meetings and think about whether to apply Article 5 of the Charter. And the Kremlin is demonstrating the failure of the Alliance. Are any responses to such hybrid threats being prepared?

— I think the main thing is to call them by the right words. These are not hybrid threats, this is a real war. NATO countries have said quite clearly that such a scenario is Article 5 of the Charter. We have already gone through all these scenarios, we have discussed them with our allies, everyone understands that this will be a direct attack.

For us, hybrid attacks on countries are already a reality. We live with this almost every day. When I was the mayor of Riga, cyber attacks were almost daily. We learned to cope with it.

You know, the residents of Latgale and Daugavpils, whom you are talking about, understood what threats come from Russia. Putin does not care where his bombs fall. On Russians, on Latvians, on Ukrainians, it makes no difference to him.

Today, the majority of Russians in Latvia are happy that we are a NATO country.

— Belarusians remember you, of course, as the mayor of Riga, who hung out the white-red-white flag during the World Ice Hockey Championship. This was, of course, a huge event for us. Thank you again for this.

The Lukashenka regime has opened a criminal case against you and the current President of Latvia Edgars Rinkēvičs. By the way, you wrote on your social media that you propose that Lukashenka be tried in the Hague. Today, there are two applications against Lukashenka to the ICC. Perhaps your words will become prophetic, and Lukashenka will visit this small town in the Netherlands.

— We hope so. However, we see that dictators can safely live with a warrant from the ICC. There is a criminal case against Putin in the Hague. He is always trying not to go to countries where he could be arrested.

I think such an act would help draw attention to what is happening in Belarus, help to understand this reality. There are 720 deputies in the European Parliament. Each has their own priority. For some, it is Ukraine. Of course, there are quite a lot of them, since this is a relevant topic. For some, Gaza, for others, Venezuela is the top priority. And there are deputies for whom Belarus is a priority. But there are not so many of them.

And our task is to constantly remind everyone about this. Yes, of course, we can say that these resolutions that we write here do not give anything, but they always keep the issue of Belarus on the agenda. And this, I think, is the most important thing.

For example, in March we are holding an action in Strasbourg. We will ask MEPs to write a letter to one political prisoner in Belarus. You could say that it is a small action, but MEPs will talk about it again, remember Belarus. And so we can keep this issue on the agenda.

That is why the trial of Lukashenka in the Hague would return Belarus to the agenda. And this, I think, is the most important thing now.

If a new problem appears in Europe, everyone rushes to solve it, no one talks about Belarus anymore. When I went to Brussels for the first time in June, everyone was talking only about Palestine. I say: “Listen, our most important problem now is Ukraine”. I would like us to think about Belarus much more. I will say frankly, when Tsikhanouskaya was in Brussels, very few MEPs came to the meeting. Today, this is the reality.

— In the context of the peace talks that are currently underway between Russia and the United States, the discussion about sanctions has resumed. There are European politicians who say that after the end of the war, sanctions should be lifted from both Russia and Belarus. What is your position on this issue? What is the mainstream in the European Parliament now regarding sanctions?

— I am a fan of democracy. Because the weakest side of democracy is its strong point. It is very difficult to make a decision in Europe. We need to negotiate a lot, agree with everyone. But once a decision is made, we no longer change it. Look at what is happening in the United States. The president has absolute power there. And he can change the entire line, the entire agenda in 2-3 weeks. In Europe, this is impossible.

We try to maintain a balance between the government, parliament, NGOs, courts, and so on. Therefore, I do not believe that anything will change abruptly in the issue of sanctions.

And if our allies in the United States start pressuring us, saying, “let's lift the sanctions,” I do not see a scenario where someone could easily make such decisions.

I think that we will go even further in the issue of sanctions. As I have already said, the most important thing is not what Trump says, but what Europe does. You can argue about sanctions — whether they are effective or not. For example, I believe that they should be different with respect to Belarus. However, they produce some results. And the fact that there are problems in the Russian economy now is still because of the sanctions.

— In conclusion, I would like to touch on the issue of European integration. I still hope that a free Belarus will follow the European path. Latvia is also a post-Soviet country. I think there were big discussions about Latvia joining the EU at the time. What would you say to Belarusians as a Latvian, whose country joined the EU more than 20 years ago? What arguments would you give for European integration?

— I don’t remember exactly what the situation was like before joining. I think about 67% were in favor of joining the EU, but there were those who didn’t want to.

Of course, the majority of Latvians were in favor of joining the EU. Yes, there were those who were against it, but these were mostly Russian-speaking people, and, of course, those who lived under the influence of Russian propaganda.

As I have already said, democracy is the only way to stability. It is very difficult for us to work with autocrats, it is very difficult for us to work with dictators. Europe does not know how to do this, and it is good that it does not know how. Democracy is the only way for Belarus. There is simply no other way.

One politician compared our freedom to a zoo. You were always in a cage, but they brought you food three times a day. Now the doors have opened, everyone is free, but everyone must take care of themselves. That's how it happened. There were those who quickly found themselves in the new world, but also those who lost a lot.

It is important for Belarus to look today at the mistakes made by Latvia. For example, the issue of privatization. These mistakes cannot be repeated in Belarus. We are ready to share all the information. I think it is easy to say that we did something wrong 20 years ago. It is difficult for everyone to say what to do next.

Of course, we are waiting for the fourth Baltic country to join the EU, because we consider Belarusians our brothers. If Ukraine becomes part of the European Union, it means that Belarus will also be part of the EU. It is a matter of time.

If in Russia I believe in these data that two-thirds of society support Putin, then we do not believe in the figures that Lukashenka shows that allegedly 86 percent vote for him.

I think that if there was a referendum in Belarus on joining the European Union, you would have very good results.

— Could Latvia advocate for Belarus's accession to the EU? Is it in Riga's interests?

— Absolutely. We understand the role Belarus plays in our security. It is very important for us to have countries around us that believe in democracy and freedom. That is why it is very easy for us to live with Estonians and Lithuanians.

The best example is a large house with many apartments. We have two neighbors with whom we can argue about something, maybe react nervously to some questions. But still, we all want this house to be more beautiful, we want to have a nice garden, a clean staircase. We all understand that this is in our interests.

And it is very difficult for us to live when there is another neighbor who does not want any of this. He only quarrels with others all the time, drinks, is aggressive, offends our children. If you plant flowers, he just goes and tramples them. It is very difficult for us to live in such a house.

And the more neighbors we have who want to see this house more beautiful, the better for us. I think everyone understands this. We want neighbors like Lithuania and Estonia. And of course, we want Belarus to be such a neighbor. And we want to see Ukraine in this house. Because Ukraine is now, of course, suffering the most from this neighbor.

Over the past 300 years, Russia has attacked Ukraine 24 times. Every time they do some repairs in their apartment, buy new furniture, this neighbor just comes, breaks down the door, steals everything and leaves ruins.

But we cannot put our country in a different place on the map. Of course, we must live with this, but we always see Belarus as a good neighbor. We believe in people, but not in Lukashenka.

— By the way, in the last interview you told us that you had never been to Belarus. Taking this opportunity, our editorial staff is pleased to invite you to free Belarus. I think many Belarusians will be happy to see you. Thank you very much.

— I dream of going to Minsk one day, and that day will come. But for that day to come, I still need to work for it here in Brussels. You have friends here. It doesn’t matter how many friends you have, the main thing is that they are real. Colleagues, with whom you work together for a free Belarus.

I see that all these good people really love you, and will try to do everything to make that day come.

The situation in the world shows that dictators can fall very quickly. Yesterday, this regime looked very stable, tomorrow it is no more, as it was in Syria. And we hope that such a day will come in Belarus too.

At the moment, of course, what is happening in the world does not give optimism, but I cannot allow myself to be a pessimist. And you cannot either. So let's remain optimistic.

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