‘Ushakov's Statement Is Not the End Of This Story’

What steps will Trump take next?

Yesterday, Putin appeared in military uniform, and today his aide Ushakov stated that a ceasefire would not be beneficial for Russia. Was it expected that the U.S. proposal would be rejected? Charter97.org discussed this with Ukrainian political analyst and professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Petro Oleshchuk:

— This was expected, but to be honest, I thought there would be a more cunning strategy—rather than an outright refusal, Russia might try to stall for time. That is, they could have played along, making counterproposals without outright rejecting the initiative.

However, there are still options, as negotiations between Russian officials and special envoy Whitkoff are expected, and there have been reports about a possible phone call between Putin and Trump.

I suspect Ushakov’s statement is not the end of this story. It serves as a preliminary position before further talks — Putin is emphasizing that "this is not beneficial for us, and we won’t agree to it — what will you offer us to make us reconsider?"

— So what now? What steps will Trump take next?

— That’s a great question, and I don’t have a clear answer. Until recently, Trump has not shown a real willingness or ability to pressure Putin. The U.S. has been pressuring Ukraine instead, as Kyiv depends on American aid, making it easier to exert influence there.

The specific proposal for a 30-day ceasefire without any preconditions was supported by both the U.S. and Ukraine. Russia was thus given a choice — to either join in and demonstrate a genuine willingness to end the war, as they have claimed in the past, or confirm that they are not actually interested in peace.

It seems they are indeed confirming their disinterest, and how the Trump administration will react remains unknown. There has been talk of possible new sanctions and other measures, but again, until now, Trump has not shown much inclination to put real pressure on Putin.

— What should we expect from Russia? What will their strategy be in this situation?

— Russia’s strategy will be straightforward: to continue military operations, keep bombarding Ukraine, and wait for divisions among NATO allies to deepen. They are likely hoping that NATO will become dysfunctional, which, in their view, would give them better negotiating leverage.

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